Destino de la inversión pública en tiempos de pandemia. Muertes por COVID-19 y efectos en la pobreza en México.

Abstract

This article analyses the relationship between government investment and COVID-19 deaths in Mexico. As well as the effects on poverty. We see that the amount of investment allocated to health has been very low since 1950, and that in 2019 the variation was even negative. In this article we show an inversely proportional relationship between the increase in government investment and the number of COVID-19 deaths.
Hence, if the Mexican government had increased public investment (I) in health in 2020 by 5%, instead of 0% as it did, it could have reduced the number of daily deaths by 71 people, under a scenario of a 10% increase in I between 2020 and 2021. Thus, the effect on reducing deaths could have reached a reduction of 85 deaths per day on average. Finally, in the case of a 20% increase, the daily effect could have reached a reduction of 103 cases per day.
The post-pandemic effects were negative in increasing multidimensional poverty: moderate poverty increased by .6% and extreme poverty by 1.5% in 2020.
We conclude that it is necessary to establish choice criteria, inspired by an ethical vision that puts people at the centre of investment priorities.